Best Odds Guaranteed: What Is BOG Actually Worth in Pounds?
Best odds guaranteed pays you the starting price when it beats the price you took. It is a genuine concession and it is free to the customer. It is also routinely described as though it settles the question of which bookmaker to use, which the arithmetic does not support.
This page is an illustration, not a measurement. Working out what BOG is worth needs historical early-price and starting-price pairs, which no live capture provides. Our margin study contains no horse racing at all. Every figure below comes from assumptions stated on the page, which you can change — none of it is a measured claim about any operator.
What BOG is worth, and the two numbers that decide it
The concession pays out only when two things are true at once: the starting price is bigger than the price you took, and you backed the winner. Its value per pound staked is therefore the chance of the price drifting multiplied by how far it drifts. Neither number is dramatic, and multiplying two modest numbers gives a small one.
Write it out: value per £100 staked = P(starting price is bigger) × average uplift when it is. If prices drift a fifth of the time and the average drift is 6%, the concession is worth 1.2% of turnover. That is a real 1.2%, given away for nothing, and it is worth taking. It is also smaller than the gap between the keenest and dearest bookmakers in our study.
Three scenarios, so you can see the shape of it
Assumptions, not findings. Pick whichever you think is closest to reality — the point is the order of magnitude, which barely moves across the plausible range.
| Scenario | Chance the SP is bigger | Average uplift when it is | Worth per £100 staked |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 20% | 6% | £1.20 |
| Middling | 30% | 8% | £2.40 |
| Generous | 40% | 10% | £4.00 |
Across the whole plausible range the concession lands between roughly £1.20 and £4.00 per £100 staked. Set your own assumptions below if you disagree with these; the calculator does the same arithmetic on whatever you enter.
Set your own assumptions
Why a keen price beats a good concession
A concession worth around a percent of turnover is worth having. It is not, on this arithmetic, worth choosing a consistently dearer bookmaker for — because the margin applies to every bet you place, while BOG applies only to racing, only inside the offer window, and only when the price drifts.
That is the comparison the badge on the homepage invites you not to make. The register measures the part that applies to everything, and the ranking orders operators by it. Best odds guaranteed sits on top of that as a genuine extra, in the same way a discount voucher sits on top of a shop’s ordinary prices without telling you whether the shop is dear.
If we ever hold the historical price data needed to measure the concession properly, this page will carry measured figures and say so. Until then it carries arithmetic and says that instead.
Questions about best odds guaranteed
What does best odds guaranteed mean?
If you take a price on a horse or greyhound and the starting price returns bigger, the bookmaker pays you at the starting price instead. You get the better of the two, and you do not have to ask for it.
Which bookmakers offer best odds guaranteed?
It is a standard feature at most major UK bookmakers on UK and Irish racing, though the terms differ: some apply it only on the day of the race, some cap the maximum payout, and some exclude certain meetings. The terms matter more than whether the badge is on the site.
What time does best odds guaranteed start?
Commonly from the morning of the race, though several operators apply it from the previous evening and a few only from a set time on the day. It is one of the terms most worth checking, because a price taken outside the window is simply a fixed price.
Is best odds guaranteed worth anything?
It is worth something real, because it removes one side of a risk without adding a cost. But it applies only when the starting price beats your price, so its value is the chance of that happening multiplied by how much bigger the starting price is. Both are modest, so the result is modest.
Does BOG make up for a wide margin?
Rarely, on the arithmetic. A concession worth a fraction of a percent of turnover does not offset a price that is consistently several percent worse. It is worth having, and it is worth less than a keen price.
Does best odds guaranteed apply to each-way bets?
Usually yes, with the place part settled at the corresponding fraction of the starting price. As with everything here, the operator’s published terms are the authority.
Are the figures on this page measured?
No, and this is important. They are an illustration built from assumptions you can change. Our margin study covers match-result markets in football, cricket and tennis; it contains no horse racing data, so we have nothing measured to report on BOG.